The effects of the self-proclaimed Nistrian Moldovan Republic on security of Ukraine, Moldova and Romania

The last time, after the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the escalation of the military conflict in Eastern regions of Ukraine (Lugansk and Donetsk) between Ukraine's security forces and pro-Russian rebels, geopolitical analysts attach great importance to the effects of unrecognized NMR on security in the region, namely the security of Ukraine, Moldova and Romania. President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko said in one of his statements that he does not allow the "Transnistrization" of the Eastern Ukraine, ie the formation of an unrecognized "republic" on the Ukrainian territory. Unrecognized TMR influences Eastern Ukraine not only by example, but also by some cadres of the leadership of the republics of Donetsk and Lugans - people who fought in the war of the Nistru River in 1992 or were high officials in the Tiraspol structures (eg., V. Antiufeev, the former KGB chief in Tiraspol is currently vice-premier in Donetsk). Influence of TMR on Ukraine aims and possible challenges to destabilize the situation in the Odessa region by the Russian military from the Transnistrian region of Moldova. To reduce the possibility thereof, the Ukrainian authorities have proceeded to dig a trench along the Transnistrian segment of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border. This trench has the function of an obstacle to any attempt to invade Ukraine by 14-th Russian Army, stationed in Eastern Moldova.

The effects of NMR on security of Moldova concerns the scenario that it can trigger a new war on the Dniester, in response to the statements of officials in Chisinau (the first, of the President N. Timofti) about the need to withdraw Russian troops from the territory of Moldova and the replacement of the peacekeeping mission with civilian observers. In the event of bloodshed, Russian authorities could show that keeping Russian peacekeepers in Moldova and military contingent defending deposits of weapons of the 14th Army is still necessary.

The effects of the NMR on Romania's security are less pronounced, taking into account the fact that Romania is under the protection of NATO umbrella. The self-TMR is a tool for influencing Moldova and Ukraine. But it is clear that a military conflict, in an active phase, at NATO border, will affect Romania, that is why the Romanian state must do everything to prevent the resumption of the frozen conflict on the Dniester.